Case Fill vs. Void Elimination: Rethinking Out-of-Stocks in CPG | Presence

For decades, case fill rates have been a heartbeat metric in consumer goods supply chains. If you worked in manufacturing, planning, logistics, or customer service, you probably lived and died by the question: “Did we ship the customer order on time and in full?”

Real lost sales often happen much closer to the shopper—on the shelf, where voids, phantom inventory, and execution failures keep product out of sight and out of carts.

In today’s CPG environment—where AI, always-on data, and agentic monitoring are redefining what’s possible—it’s time to reframe the debate.

Upstream supply reliability (OTIF) and downstream shelf execution (void detection, order triggers, on-shelf availability) both matter. They attack the same shopper pain point, “I can’t find what I came for”, from opposite ends of the value chain.

1. Improving OTIF (On Time, In Full)

Why it matters:

Directly reduces the risk that inventory isn’t in the DC or backroom when needed.
Builds trust with retail partners, many of whom penalize poor OTIF performance.
Benefits all customers since it’s systemic.

Context: Even the world’s biggest retailers have shifted the bar. In 2024, Walmart adjusted its long-standing OTIF requirements from a 98% expectation to a 90% on-time / 95% in-full standard. The fines remain in place, but the move acknowledges that perfection is costly and sometimes counterproductive. The message is clear: OTIF is still table stakes, but it’s not the only lever that matters.

The trade-offs:

Diminishing returns. Many CPGs already run at 90–95% OTIF. Raising it higher often requires heavy capex or additional safety stock.
Fixing OTIF doesn’t guarantee the product makes it to the shelf edge. The “last 50 feet” is still vulnerable.

2. Working Closer to the Shelf (Voids, Order Triggers, Store Collaboration)

Why it matters:

Tackles the “last mile,” where studies show 30–40% of out-of-stock events are caused by ordering errors, phantom inventory, or execution voids—not upstream supply.
Digital fixes—analytics, store signals, and AI/agentic monitoring—deliver faster ROI than re-engineering entire supply chains.
Builds differentiated partnerships: “We help you sense and respond at the shelf.”

Context: One leading beverage company used Trax shelf recognition to digitize thousands of store visits and trigger automated replenishment actions. Accenture helped another multinational build its own “Perfect Store” platform, combining audit photos with AI to flag missing SKUs in near real time. Both saw measurable uplifts in sales and share—not by chasing fill rates, but by closing voids and attacking phantom inventory.

The trade-offs:

Fragmented—solutions often need to be retailer- or store-specific.
Harder to scale without strong technology or data partnerships.

3. Where the ROI Usually Tilts

If OTIF is poor (<90%): Fix that first. A missing truckload cascades into multiple shelf outages.
If OTIF is strong (>95%): Shelf interventions generally deliver higher incremental profit by uncovering hidden demand.
Hybrid wins: leaders combine upstream reliability with agentic shelf sensing—computer vision, POS-driven void detection, predictive “next-best-order” algorithms.

CPG leaders can’t afford to treat these as separate conversations. The next wave of growth will come from always-on, algorithmic systems that monitor both upstream and downstream simultaneously—then act in real time to recover sales. The journey won’t be the same for every manufacturer. At Accenture, we’re partnering with leaders to test, learn, and scale—where would it help to start the conversation in your world?

#CPG #ConsumerGoods #RetailExecution #AI #ThinkingBeyondTheStoreVisit #SupplyChainExcellence #Accenture #Reinvention

Originally posted on LinkedIn on Sep 09. 2025; https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:7371162517756317696/